Alright kids, it’s over. Yes, we have tomorrow to deal with, as well as a stub session on Tuesday, but really: can anything remotely interesting or impactful happen during that slim time sliver? I doubt it.
And, in terms of content for this week’s epistle, it’s decidedly thin gruel. So I’m going to introduce a new feature into this forum, purloined from, of all places, Reddit. The concept is: Am I the @sshole? (AITA), a venue in which those so wondering can submit a narrative in which they have presumably taken some action or decision with which not everyone either impacted or observing is entirely pleased, and ask commenters for an AITA ruling. This, my friends, is what America at its finest, and I think the time has come to include it into our proceedings.
But first a word about Reddit, which bills itself as “The Front Page of the Internet”. Well, maybe, but that is not my experience with it. I find it to be more of the web’s Wild, Wild West. No topic is off limits, and none of any kind are forgotten or forsaken. For the uninitiated, I stop short of fully endorsing it, because some of the stuff inside there is just plain demented. The real meat on the Reddit bones consists of a virtually infinite set of subgroups (called sub-reddits), where topic enthusiasts of every of every stripe are allowed, nay, encouraged, to plumb the depths of their obsessions. There is, for instance, a very active sub dedicated to the Columbine shooters, and, from my brief sojourns there, it would appear that most of the contributors are Eric/Dylan fanboys and fangirls. But I don’t hang around r/Columbine. Much. Though I’m not proud of this, my favorite sub is one dedicated to those who undertake the dainty, delicate practice of exposing their extremities to various types of running lawn equipment, and proudly displaying and describing the outcomes of this exercise. Something inside me finds this touches my soul, stirs up all the romance which, at my advance age, I am able to muster. But then again, I’ve never, at least within these pages, described myself as being particularly immersed in rational thought.
r/AITA is among the most active of Reddit subs, featuring an astonishing 1.6 million members, and offering up hundreds of posts each day. I will defend the construct to the end of time, because I believe it democratizes life’s most difficult issues. AITA (one might, for instance, inquire) for keying my neighbor’s car after the fifth time he blocked my driveway (his ride is an old school, primer grey 1972 Buick Regal)? Well, let the masses decide. For my part, I voted NTA (Not the @sshole) with the caveat that it probably would be wise not to undertake such an action until said neighbor removed his vehicle as an obstacle to this vital point of ingress/egress.
Further, AITA reminds me a lot of the markets, particularly insofar as the outcomes are decided not by rhetorical flourishes of glibness, but rather by the sober judgment of the masses. True, and for the most part, no money is at stake, but unlike, say, political or legal proceedings, it is the forces of fact and choice that determine the outcome.
And for now, the market is rather silent as to what it believes may happen next. It by and large has no particular opinion as to its immediate future prospects. AITA for thinking that this represents sound thinking on the part of the investment universe? You decide.
As covered in last week’s note, the level of serenity experienced during the waning days of this December stands in mindboggling contrast to the pain and suffering we experienced just a year ago. Our equity indices do nothing but take baby steps to new highs. Nothing under the sun seems to disturb their equanimity. I had a holiday egg nog with Captain Naz, and he asked me: “AITA for crushing through the Nine Thousand mark without a second thought, taking associated P/Es to nearly 34?”
I didn’t have a good reply for him.
He left in somewhat of a deflated mood. Then Chairman Powell stopped by, dressed up, in disturbing fashion, like Janet Yellen, and planted himself for an extended period of time under the mistletoe (I didn’t take the bait). He asked me “AITA for goosing the Repo markets with artificially manufactured funds?”:
I wasn’t able to answer him in a satisfactory fashion either. All I could do was share this graph on the left, but we both experienced a DTA (Definitely the @sshole) moment when we couldn’t decipher it’s meaning.
In an element of additional DTA, I did suggest to him that I suspect he will be compelled to do more of this sort of thing in the coming months. AITA for suggesting that 2020 may be a year of Quantitative Easing re-emerging with renewed vigor? That long-term interest rates have: a) not seen their lows; and b) may go negative? If so, I don’t care; I’ll gladly take the hit.
Again, I believe, along with the @sshole consensus, that we’ll have more volatility next year than we have experienced in the improbably magical 2019. AITA for thinking at the beginning of last year, that ’19 was going to be a full on sh!t show? Probably, but who knew at the time that the CBs were going to turn from frosty witches into fully supine Love Goddesses? Answer: Not me. And I had no reason to suspect that there would be angel descending on my world (or anyone else’s, for that matter), prepared to fly me (and others) to realms I’d never dare hope to visit.
We enter a new decade in a couple of days. The 10s brought us an approximate tripling of equity valuations, a reduction in 10-year note rates by approximately half, and a 2/3rds decrease in the Unemployment Rate. Inflation is nowhere on the horizon. AITA for feeling unfulfilled by all of this divine largesse? For believing that it was, in many ways, the worst decade of my life? If so, those of you who know me understand that I come by these feelings honestly.
But I do wonder about the rest of you who are so angry, clinging to the notion that our collective affairs are: a) getting worse by the day; and b) leading us towards utter collapse of civilization. There’s a DTA vote out there for some of y’all.
And AITA for mentioning the biggest news obsession of moment? Impeachment? In one of the larger stories of this otherwise quiet week, Senator Lisa Murkowski (R, AK) became the first of her party to break ranks with the McConnell/Trump playbook. AITA for thinking she looks like Mick Jagger in drag?
AITA for thinking the dude is the hotter of the two? Even at 75?
And AITA for not having much else to share with you this holiday weekend? I’m guessing the answer is no. We’re all tired, and if you are weary of my musings, I will, albeit with heavy heart, grant you an unambiguous NTA for so feeling.
I will, however, remind you that a new year, a new decade, begins on Wednesday, and that by Thursday, we’re going to have to deal with it in earnest. Fortunately, though, we may be able to ease into this. For some reason, the December Employment Report, which, in time-honored fashion, is typically released on the first Friday of the month, is somehow deferred for a full week. AITA for wondering why the Bureau of Labor Statistics can’t get its act together for the 4th and must instead wait until the 11th? AITA for being, on balance, glad for the delay?
With respect to the latter, I’m guessing the answer is no. We’ll all have plenty of time to process a pant load of data points, and soon. All month. All quarter. All year. By the time the jobs number drops, the Q4 earnings engine will be fully revved and ready to lay its tidings on us. Soon after, we’re looking at quaint concepts like quarterly GDP, the next chapter in the trade war cycle, shenanigans on Capitol Hill, and, of course the primary season.
AITA if all of this makes me tired just to contemplate? Didn’t think so.
And I will presume that I’ll get a resounding NTA for now taking an early exit, wishing everyone, of course, a joyous and prosperous New Year. I am on record as marking ’19 as a very special year for me, and I’ll stick by that, DTA or NTA notwithstanding. It put a sublime cap for what was otherwise a decidedly sucky decade the kid, and I love you for that much-needed blessing. And the truth is, at this point, I don’t know where I’d be without you. I am hoping for the best for us in the 20s, but we’ll take what we get, now, won’t we?
As a public service to my constituents, I will offer up this forum for AITA submissions, so if you have a question, ask me (I won’t say no, how could I)? You’ll certainly receive my honestly rendered DTA/NTA judgment, as well as, if you’d like, those of the teeming millions that comprise my readership.
Fair advance warning though:
It’s a tough crowd.
In in fact, in self-serving DTA reference to publication in this space a month ago, I can tell you that sometimes, it’s the @ssholes on parade. But I love you anyway, so Happy New Year, and of course…
TIMSHEL