Smash Not Grab

I’ve had better months in NYC than I have experienced in 2/21, a period where the hits just keep coming. It is my sad duty report yet another shocking personal incident, recognizing, in doing so (and particularly in the wake of my recently reported 7-Eleven travesty), that I might have finally managed to overwhelm my readers’ sensibilities. If so, know that I regret it. But they need to know.

So, there I was, early Thursday evening, hoofing my way back to my place, when, rounding the corner onto 93rd at Columbus (four short blocks from the very spot where the 7/11 outrage transpired) I heard my car alarm going off, and saw some dude running in a direction which any reliable compass designates “away from my car”. I discovered, upon further inspection, that my rear passenger car window had been smashed in – presumably by the gentleman whose fleet feet I saw hurrying away.

In the moment, I had three choices.: 1) I could’ve chased after him and beat his ass (nobody messes with the kid these days), 2) I certainly might’ve summoned the police (fat lot of good that would’ve done me), or 3) I could have simply done nothing.

I chose, with no regrets, Door Number Three. I checked around the inside of my ride; found, to my surprise, that nothing was missing – probably owing to my untimely arrival on the scene. Everything remained – I won’t say in good order – but at any rate, as I had left it.

So, I let it go.

Welcome to the world of Smash Not Grab.

I had it in mind to call this piece Smash and Grab – adding the angelic flourish of Part Deux. Because the Smash part has happened to me before. In the same hood. About eight and a half years ago. But that affair also involved some grabbing: specifically, the thefting of a gen-u-ine Eye-talian leather bag to which I had formed some attachment. However, this time, because nothing was taken, so the Grab part does not apply, and, as such, the Part Deux must also wait for a future incident.

I net out to preferring the earlier occurrence, because, to my way of thinking, why smash if you’re not gonna grab? I mean, that is the way things used to work, and on balance, that process makes more sense to me. But the duality no longer prevails. Oh, we still smash. Grabbing? Not so much.

And, as always, what is sauce for life’s goose is sauce for the market’s gander.

The Big Short (squeeze) of January was certainly a smash, but who grabbed what? Not clear.

What we do know is that the grand army of squeezer/smashers have been out there looking for new victims. By all accounts, it ain’t going so good for them, as they home in on names like the formally high-flying Beyond Meat and the decidedly earth-tethered Best Buy. Yes, they managed to squeeze into “wheels up” configurations, but in both of these cases and others, the nose has begun to point downward. We thus face a Smash Alert, with every prospect of debris flying all over the place.

But little grab to show for the efforts

We also probably should cover the Texas Power situation, though perhaps not with a fisted sledgehammer. It is, however, perhaps fair to state that of any jurisdiction in the Lower 48 or beyond, Texas was probably the one where a disruption in the power supply was least likely.

But yet it happened, is happening still.

The Lone Star Power Grid was certainly smashed – at least economically.

In a physical sense, perhaps it would be more accurate to describe it as having been iced.

One way or another, the country’s Energy Patch is dark and cold – currently operating at less than 50% production/distribution capacity. Perhaps there are some out there that feel these are the kind of growing pains we need to ween, or “will” ourselves off of fossil fuels, but I am guessing that very few of them are freezing in Texas right now. They suffer none but celebrate vicariously.

However, while they may experience some fleeting joy in these tidings, with no suitable alternatives to power heat, electricity or locomotion, it doesn’t look to me like they’ve grabbed anything to which they can hold on.

And, finally, it may bear mention that within the span of ten short months, Lone Star Energy Markets have experienced the dual smash of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil trading at -$40/barrel and Dallas/Fort Worth Energy Prices spiking 200-fold – from < $50 to ~$10,000 per kilowatt hour. To put the latter in context, at some point mid-week, it would cost a Texan $100 to charge his or her I-phone.

We can move from there to the paper issued by the U.S. Government, whether in the form of legal tender, or debentures which it has promised to repay at some future date. The smashing of these assets is observable — at varying paces but is right in front of our noses if we care to look. Here, we may have identified the exception to our titular rule, because the exercise has caused a huge grab of every financial asset that is not issued by our Treasury Department.

So, the markets are smashing the USD, and taking some deeply destructive whacks at our Treasury Complex – all of which has catalyzed some grabbing by the investment community. But one wonders if what has been grabbed in these realms can be retained indefinitely.

For now, they’re holding on tight, and to me, the smash/grab bargain seems to be one that boils down to the following.

If the smashers keep smashing, then the grabbers will keep grabbing. I expect this to continue – until it doesn’t – a scenario under which, while I expect the smashing to extend, there will be nothing of value to grab, and no one to grab it in any event. This is the eventuality for which we must ultimately prepare, but I suspect it’s a good ways down the road. We could use the time wisely, preparing for the problems that could arise and sh!t. But let’s face it: if we were to do so, it would be a first.

And I reckon what’s sauce for the market goose is also sauce for economic gander. Lotta stuff smashed up with respect to the latter (what, with the virus and all), and lord knows that everyone is attempting to grab what they can.

On balance, though it looks like a loser to me on the grab side. But what do I know? Markets retain their impossibly high valuations, and the folks at the Atlanta Fed (even if their Wall Street opposite numbers incrementally disagree) are prognosticating a first quarter of what can only be described (if you’ll pardon the expression) as a smashing success.

Yes, a 9 handle on GDP would be a smash hit, while, if the banking forecasts are correct and we come in at the blue end of the estimates, it will be a gripping, grabbing dose of reality.

I reckon we’ll find out, but one way or the other, but carry on we have and carry on we will. My garage guys (who I treat very well) did a nice job of taping up my window, and I have the fabulous folks at SafeLite coming to my house with a replacement, as financed 100% by my fabulous insurance company – USAA.

The whole sequence seems rather pointless; nobody ends up much the better or worse for it. I had about 45 mins of inconvenience. Gave the garage guys a paid assignment. SafeLite got a small trade, and USAA had a small outlay. I don’t think the perpetrator of the crime gained anything for his efforts, but, on the other hand, I doubt he’s much worse off. Just a lot of energy wasted on all sides if you ask me. Lots of this kind of circumlocution going on these days, I think.

I do reckon that there’s more smashing in my future, and – who knows? I may just get into a mindset to do some smashing myself.

But there’s only one thing I wanna grab. And when I have executed this exercise, I won’t let go.

No smashing will set up this grabbing, but I guess that’s my point. Times are a changing, winds are ablowing, our roadmaps are misplaced, and the GPS is acting wonky. We can and should expect anything at this point.

My best advice is to remain on the ready.

For what?

Beats the daylight out of me.

TIMSHEL

Posted in Weeklies.