Talk to me, So you can see, Oh, what’s going on
– Marvin Gaye (via BB)
I don’t remember if I came up with this week’s theme on my own or lifted it from somewhere else. Probably it’s the latter. And, to boot, our musical quote is a complete non-sequitur.
But let us proceed, shall we? There are two types of people in this world: folks who divide humanity into two categories, and those that do not.
Were it not oxymoronic to our motif, I’d cast my lot with the latter group, with whom, at any rate, I claim full solidarity.
In the meanwhile, let’s just say that the world can be spilt into two camps, but even so, there are any number of choices available as to what form this division assumes. Men and women/boys and girls? Maybe once, but not anymore. Black/white? Please. Rich/poor? Well, perhaps.
Liberal/conservative? Woke/reactionary? Selfish/selfless? Fat/skinny? Cool/square? Hot/not? So many bifurcations — all with some measure of validity, but all containing such massive grey areas as to obscure the spilt from our field of vision.
Does one, for instance, view the US as a miraculous 24-decade experiment in self-governance, demonstrating that consensus law-making — featuring individual choice, initiative encouragement, and the celebration of (often-disproportionate) rewards, would improve the lots of all its citizens and show a better way for the rest of the world? Or is it a four-century criminal enterprise, designed to perpetuate the outrageous advantage of a gender and race-based elite?
Well, yes.
Thus, when we define the two types of people in this world, I state once again that the clearest lines of separation are between those that believe that there are two types of people in this world, and those that don’t.
And again, I cast my lot, in divine, oxymoronic flourish, with the latter group.
But across human affairs, it’s complicated. By contrast, the concept applies more fluidly in the markets, so let’s see how it plays out there.
If you’re paying attention here (and even if you’re not), you’d be compelled to notice that we’ve fired off some new rocket boosters into the capital markets, catapulting valuations into new, previously un-breached levels of the pricing euphoria.
And one can view these tidings in a couple of different ways. It’s possible, for instance, to adopt the mindset that all is as it should be. We’ve got a recovering economy, covid is on the lamb, Washington (Fed, White House and Congress) has our backs, and interest rates remain at improbably low thresholds. Powell tapered, but purred like a kitten in his remarks.
Under this rosy interpretation, average citizens and the creators of such miracles as ETFs, NFTs and crypto are all wizard-level investors and financial engineers.
The other outlook is cloudier. It worries that the capital markets are disproportionately fueled by nearly a decade and a half of central bank created liquidity. That all this manufactured cash has produced a global debt/inflation crisis that will resolve itself – sooner or later — in sorrow. That the plague rising prices will not only not dissipate organically but will increase with broadening and deepening force. That the combination of all that borrowed money and higher cost bases will ultimately be crippling to economic agents of every stripe.
Because we are all rational decision-makers, our worldview informs our investment choices. If you’re in the former group, you load the boat. Those in the latter, by contrast, are sitting on their hands.
Truly, I am conflicted here. I tend to agree with the Debbie Downers — that there are too many economic problems out there which money printing won’t solve (and may make worse). And about the only way I can lift myself out of this depressive, lethargic outlook is to spin up the hypothesis that the world has been operating with an insufficient money supply for eons – a problem which we are only now eradicating.
Well, maybe, but even if this is true, what’s to save us from over-shooting the mark? And, who’s to say that we haven’t already done so?
Two-pronged contradictions of this nature abound. Our betters just landed their private jets – after a Glasgow conference where everyone agreed to – at some point – euthanize the fossil fuel business, only to find, paradoxically, carbon-based fuel prices at seven-year highs, and tidings of record levels of energy exports:
At any rate, for now, all is well in investor-land. Except it’s not. Because there are two types of risktakers in this world: those that rode the > 20% ytd gains in broad-based indices into performance heaven, and those that have taken a more discerning approach to security selection.
The returns of large portions of the latter group are suffering mightily, and I cast my lot with them – in part, but not exclusively, because this is how my client base rolls.
The key question, as ever, is what to do now? And here, there are two paths you can go by.
If you’re so inclined, you can continue to ride the wave – at least while there’s still time to change the road you’re on. You have my blessing to remain sure, all that’ glitters is gold. For now.
Or, you can adopt a more cautious approach. There’s troubles aplenty out there, and let’s just say that if they never manifest themselves, if the stores are all closed, but in a word we can get what we came for, then it will be for the first time in more than three thousand years of market history.
Thus, to the cautious and skeptical among you, I say: keep heart and stay the course. Yes, We’re winding down this road, and shadows may indeed be taller than souls right now. But this cannot last forever. So hang tight.
There’s a third way, but I absolutely forbid it. You can look around you, ask “what’s going on?”, conclude we have all descended into madness, and proceed to short everything out there you can borrow.
I absolutely forbid this.
Because I’m looking out for you and see no way you can benefit. The market may not climb higher, but it ain’t gonna sell off. At least right now.
And they just may continue their heavenward ascent. In which case you will be crushed like a grape.
As a last resort, you can talk to me, so you can see, what’s going on.
Only I might not be able to tell you. Because I don’t know myself.
Because, in my little blogo-verse, there are two types of notes I write – ones that have coherent thoughts to offer about current market conditions, and those that don’t.
Unfortunately, I fear this piece falls into the latter category.
And how you receive it depends upon which of the two types of people you are.
And therein, my friends, lies the heart of the problem.
TIMSHEL