“I’m. An. ORDinary. Guy”
— David Byrne
Yes (like the extraordinary David Byrne) I’m. An. ORDinary. Guy.
So ORDinary, in fact, that I have a lifelong affinity with ORD – known more expansively as Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport. Though I lived in that metropolis for (by my own estimate) for only 1/3rd of my interminable existence, I’d say that more than 50% of the airport hours I have logged have been at ORD – particularly during those boyhood days when my SoCal father and Chi-town mother would paddle me back and forth like a ping pong ball.
And I always took some partially perverse pride in ORD’s longtime status at the World’s Busiest Airport (which I thought was pretty cool). Until it wasn’t. Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson (ATL) surpassed it about twenty years ago. And, just this past week, I find it has slid further – now also trailing Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) and Denver International (DIA). ORD is now an ORDinary #4.
What in the blazes is going on here? I do wonder who among the airborne are passing in such great multitudes through Atlanta. Dallas, I sort of understand; at least it’s in the middle of the country. But Denver FFS? Way up in the mountains? With that terrifying blue horse out front?
DIA’s Mustang Menace:
Those iridescent red eyes ought to be enough to scare any god-fearing soul– not only away from\ DIA, but from the City of Denver, the State of Colorado, and maybe even the entire expanse of Lower 48.
And if that wasn’t bad enough, the whole complex– airport, horse, etc., is associated with a rather obtuse curse, the contours of which I struggle to understand. But I will say this: if a given civic landmark is to be subject to a hex, it would be better for all concerned if the venue wasn’t an airport.
Meantime, ORD lags behind, finishes, at least for the moment, out of the money. And it devolves to me to accept this with equanimity. But really, this is less of a hardship than I make it seem, because (I’ll let y’all in on a little secret), I have come to hate O’Hare.
This, I believe, reflects a maturity gifted to me late in life, because there’s not much to like (and a whole bunch to detest) about O’Hare. Impossibly long security lines. Nonsensical gate labelling — rendered even more maddening by incessant gate switching. Ridiculous drop off/pick up protocols. Bad food.
Nope. These days, I’ll take Milwaukee (MKE) every time. With its quirky used book shop in the central terminal, and Rent-a-Car facilities a pleasant, 20-meter walk from Baggage Claim.
Now, if only I had a reason to go to Milwaukee…
And as for O’Hare, passes into the realm of ORDinariness, leaving, for investors, only its handle as a redeeming feature. Because ORD is also the abbreviation assigned to ordinary stocks – foreign shares that price in indigenous currencies. By contrast, ADRs – American Depository Receipts – are securities domiciled abroad but priced in good ole USD.
ADRs are a handy little item, particularly, of late, for those investors with a bent towards, say, Japanese stocks. The JPY has taken a pounding against the sawbuck, and now commands < 0.8 of a penny – a twenty year low:
The good news here is that those with a yen for Nippy stocks who have gone the ADR route are down just over 6% — as compared to the > 14% pasting implied in the Japanese Ordinaries.
(If you’re thinking about a translation function involving outperformance using American ADRs, please discard this notion. Because: a) they don’t exist; and b) if they did, they’d be trading precisely where our ordinaries are currently positioned (Gallant 500 -7.8%; Captain Naz -14.7%)).
It’s small wonder that our Equity Complex is under pressure. Among other matters, PPI clocked in at an eye-popping 11.2%, year-over-year. Crude Oil prices, Washingtonian sleight of hand notwithstanding, are edging up back towards invasion shock levels. Natural Gas is now at a gravitydefying 7.3/10MMBtu – more than double the level registered when this fast-unfolding year began.
Corn (thanks in part to the cynical, temporary approval of E15: Gasoline featuring a robust 15% Ethanol contingent) is up by half in six months.
Inflation, alas, appears determined to hang around for a bit.
Meantime, The Street and the Atlanta (where else?) Fed have converged, pegging Q1 GDP at a tepid 1%. But we won’t obtain corroboration of these ever-infallible prognostications until the Commerce Department drops its first estimate on 4/28.
Interest rates have risen faster than at any point in several lifetimes, with 10-Year yields having doubled in just over four months. The Yield Curve has flirted with inversion for several weeks, and this, according to conventional thinking, evokes fears of a recession in the immediate offing.
I’m not sure this is on the cards, but a recent conversation with a client got me wondering. Recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. But if we take inflation into account, all things being equal, it should goose output by an equivalent amount. Thus, if a recession does indeed materialize, it means that the economic slowdown is of sufficient magnitude to offset the upward pressure of associated price increases.
This line of thinking also implies that at current inflation levels (no matter how one cares to measure them), GDP growth, in real terms, has been negative for several quarters — a concept too gruesome for further elaboration, I judge.
However, come what may, we must press ahead. The flow of earnings reports accelerates this week and will approach crescendo by the end of the month. The Bulge Bracket have mostly reported: a mixed bag at best. Their Investment Banking Divisions are sucking water, and deal flow is, at the moment, putrid.
The SPAC craze appears to have run its course.
Musk made his move on those tweeting birdies, who responded, on cue, by seeking to fling a Poison Pill down his gullet.
About all of which I have the following wisdom to share: _________________________.
And, overall, we are impelled to operate in an extraordinarily complex environment – with redlining risks, but (as I keep pointing out), entirely too much liquidity sloshing around the system to conjure any prospects of a rationalizing reset.
If it’s all too much for you, I empathize. I’ve been pushed to my limit as well. I took a week off but find, upon my return, that matters continue to be no less complex (and perhaps even more so) than when I buggered out.
I didn’t go nowhere during my absence, so maybe I should just jet off, and hope for the best when I (yet again) come back.
But no matter how I attempt to do so, all roads seem to lead back to ORD. My flight is delayed, and they’ve changed the gate on me four times – so far. Worse yet, my trip is now scheduled to re-route through Denver, where the Mustang Sally hex is certain to train its evil eye directly on my person.
Perhaps, on this holiday weekend, that’s what the Good Lord intended.
Because, after all, I’m. Just. An. ORDinary. Guy.
TIMSHEL