I reviewed with interest the recently released CollegePulse rankings of free speech at ~200 American Institutions of Higher Learning. My undergraduate Alma Mater – the University of Wisconsin – clocked in at a pedestrian 98th. By contrast, the school that (somewhat dubiously) awarded my MBA – the University of Chicago – topped the list, while the one that (entirely irrationally) issued my master’s degree in Economics – Columbia University – came in rock bottom.
I can offer anecdotal support for the last of these, at any rate, having served as an instructor at Columbia for several semesters, and as recently as early in this young decade. Trust me – you gotta watch your back in Morningside Heights, and even then, you’re not safe. Them b!tches will cut you for just about anything.
I am, by contrast, proud of the U. of C. for copping high honors, and, as for Wiscy? Well, it cudda been worse, right? I do take some comfort, though, in the normality of my educational speech matrix, which not only features the top of the bell curve, but also each of its extreme points.
In case you care, here’s a link to the entire list:
https://rankings.thefire.org/rank
This here column, however, is shaded in the Maroon hues of unfettered communication (as opposed to the oppressive Columbia Blue or the non-committal Cardinal Red), and, since I can put pretty much anything I want into this file, I suppose I should offer up something about Liz. For whom, as documented in these very pages, I have always carried a torch.
I won’t overload your senses here; you have and will receive an assault on this topic in the coming days. Overall, though, you gotta give her some mad props. She strengthened her monarchy even as she presided over the (inevitable) demise of its associated empire. On balance, she did few favors for her former subjects in Northern Ireland, on the Subcontinent, and other colonies in the dying empire, but please. I mean, why go to the trouble of even having an empire (which she did not, after all, create) if you cannot engage in some parameterized economic exploitation?
No, you couldn’t get within 50 fathoms of her, and if you did, there was no guarantee she’d be nice to you. If she wanted you gone, you were vaporized in microseconds. But she seemed kinda approachable, nonetheless. All at once quintessentially regal and entirely common. I know of no public figure that took her status more seriously and herself less seriously – at the same time.
I will only add one thing. I will cop to being glad for Charles that he finally gets some swats with the Royal Polo Mallet. In some ways, he’s the opposite of his moms: not very regal but supremely unapproachable. But he’s waited a long time. And, really, how much harm can he do?
Strike that. Barely 72 hours into his reign and he’s already starting to annoy me. Threw an olive branch to that insufferable couple on the West Coast. Said he’s gonna hang around till they carry him out horizontally. Oh well, the Brits survived the Luftwaffe, so they can probably endure 2 decades – tops – of Chuckie Triple Sticks.
The markets failed to declare a holiday in the wake of Lucious Liz’s demise. Yup, not only are they trading ‘em but they’re buying ‘em. All week. Careful readers (and selected clients) are impelled to acknowledge that I anticipated this. My main reasoning, as previously articulated, is that an upside reversal was the pain trade. But there are others. A galaxy of cash remains unmoored in the capital markets universe and was always likely to find at least fleeting sanctuary in risk assets.
And the economy, which faces threats on every side of the global hexagon, is not in terrible shape. The jobs market is strong. Commodity prices have, at worst, normalized. Rumors abound that there was some renewed nut squeezing, some upside gamma hedging, that sort of thing.
All eyes this coming week (while not otherwise diverted by the Queen’s memorial ceremonies) will naturally be trained on the Inflation releases, and, if the surveys are to be believed, there is further moderation in these realms. August PPI, scheduled to be announced on Wednesday morning (CPI drops Tuesday), is projected to have actually declined last month, taking the year-over-year rate down a full percentage point (from 9.8% to 8.8%). That, my friends, would be a precipitous (and welcome) reversal. The USD has stopped its by-now-counterproductive upward climb – in part owing to the ECB’s Madame LaGarde – perhaps channeling her inner Catherine the Great — having hiked Euro rates by 75 basis points.
After which, with Elizabeth II planted in eternal repose at Windsor Castle, the focus will turn to the Fed. The Street is now expecting them to go the full smash 75 at their meeting on 9/21:
With apologies to the 10 percenters, I gotta believe that 75 is a lock. This past Thursday in remarks at the Cato Institute, and two short weeks after his J-hole excoriation, he reiterated his further diabolical plans for us.
Can he back off now? I hardly think so. Even if the Inflation statistics float down like goose feathers, they’re still: a) historically and uncomfortably high: and b) stratospheric compared to his recently reiterated target of 2%.
Plus, he’s on the hook to stop shopping for securities issued by the Treasury Department, which I don’t think will toe tag govies (too much cash in need of a home), but certainly won’t help them.
Unambiguously, Treasury yields reside on the other side of the volleyball net from risk assets – particularly, high-flying Tech. Which, in time-honored tradition, is likely to continue to influence, if not lead, the equity complex as a whole.
And yes, domestic energy rates have stabilized below their highs. But in Europe – where Central Bank rates were negative from 2014 until this past week – there is no solution in sight for an energy crisis the likes of which has not been experienced in our lifetimes. Prices have backed down dramatically since rising above €340 per Megawatt Hour last month. The Germans are telling the world that their energy cupboards are full. But winter is coming, and Putin, their monopolistic supplier (and who just suffered some military reversals), is one angry bear…
Thus, and for all these reasons, I wouldn’t get too emotionally attached to last week’s rally. It may continue ere it tests recent lows but test them it will.
It all likely turns on the Inflation statistics and subsequent Fed action. The largest probability outcome is no surprises and muted market reaction. But investors are in no mood for any nasty data accidents, so it’s best to remain on high alert.
I otherwise lack much visibility into what happens next.
Were I you (and let’s face it, I am) I’d prepare myself for some continued aggravation. Among other matters, it’s U.N. week in New York, where statesmen from rogue nations that don’t pay what they owe for the privilege, will lecture us on our moral failings and then head to the local watering holes and (unfortunately, it must be said) strip clubs for some self-congratulatory recreation.
It’s a fair bet that before the month ends, 45 will either announce his run for re-election, get slapped with an indictment, or both. And won’t that be fun?
On a related note, we’re also moving in execrably into a cycle where election politics will dominate the equation. As indicated last week, the market-impacting outcomes shade from neutral (Republicans pick up seats) to dire (Progressives run the table).
When the best you can do is lose or draw, the wise move is to fold. But we’re made of sterner (more fool hardy?) stuff. We’ll keep trading. And investing. And hoping for the best.
I am highly optimistic that we will endure and ultimately thrive. After all, our friends across the pond fought the Battle of Britain. They won but it cost them an empire. Elizabeth II assumed the throne seven years later and held that spot for fully seven decades. Within a generation, her country was bestowing upon the world the perpetual gifts of the Beatles, the Stones, Zep, Floyd and Bennie Hill.
Yup, they’s a lot of ways to get by – with a little help from your friends or by other means. At least that’s my opinion, and as a proud alumnus of the University of Chicago, I feel a unique agency to share it.
I’m also proud of the schools that round out the Top 5, which include, in ranked order, Kansas State University, Purdue University, Mississippi State University and Oklahoma State University. These are authentic institutions of learning and training, with which I’ll roll every time.
However, to keep matters in perspective, even Top Dog Chi-U clocks in at tepid 77.9 (presumably on a scale of 100), and only rates as “Good”. Presumably, there is a higher rating, but not one college in America has the juice to reach it. The schools at the bottom of the list, which include the University of Pennsylvania, Yale and Northwestern, all are characterized as “Poor” or “Very Poor”.
Columbia, in a class by itself (and featuring the only single digit score) ranks as “Abysmal”.
We can infer from all the above that American free speech is a relative concept, and that, despite having won that ’76 Revolution, the best of us don’t rate very highly on the spectrum.
If I said that this didn’t depress me, I’d be speaking with forked tongue. But when it comes to analyzing the topic of what passes for free speech in these realms, perhaps this is about the best that I can do.
TIMSHEL