At the risk of stoking the fires of what is already a pre-holiday frenzy, I wish all my havirim a Happy Yom Ha’atzmaut (Tuesday), which this year celebrates the 75th Anniversary of the Founding of the State of Israel. It falls, as always on the 5th day of Iyar, and, if you’re like me, you’re wondering, in this rapidly evaporating year of 5782, how on earth we are already into the month of Iyar.
Since time immemorial, Israel, Palestine, Canaan, whatever you wanna call it, has been a geographic exemplar of all the contradictions of mankind. Birthplace and spiritual home to the Western World’s three leading religions, it has been ravaged, plundered, fought over, wept over, since it first emerged – some 60 Centuries ago. Jerusalem (its capitol no matter what anyone says) has been attacked 52 times, captured/recaptured on 44 occasions, besieged 23 times, and destroyed twice.
At least in part owing to the pounding they took earlier that decade, the post-WWII Allied Forces officially recognized it as an independent, Jewish State in 1948. Whereupon its four most immediately neighboring countries declared war on it. They asked Albert Einstein to serve as the first Prime Minister. Wisely, I think, he declined the honor.
Yet it has survived nearly perpetual war, considerable doses of bad press, and the unending enmity of its neighbors – for three generations. It presses on. Ironically, it is accused of perpetual warmongering – often by the same sources who have wondered aloud why, say, the Jews allowed ~1.1 millions of their numbers to be executed at Auschwitz by a few thousand Nazis. If every condemned prisoner took out one guard, so they say, the massacre never would have taken hold.
75 years later, they assail Israel for daring to protect itself, for responding to ceaseless attempts to bomb it into oblivion.
Israel abides, arguably thrives, as the premier democracy in the Middle East, with justice and civil rights systems that compare favorably to that of any other jurisdiction in the world. It is in every sense a democracy, but herein lies a divine paradox. In a world of wandering demography, it must daily resolve its commitment to Judaism with its democratic principles. One day, there might not be sufficient voting-eligible Jews to sustain its religious orientation.
Other countries in the region avoid this dilemma, but then again, they are not authentic democracies (or democracies at all). In Iran, the Ayatollahs run the show. The House of Saud stands, creaking as it does, at least for now. I suppose they have some form of elections in Egypt and Syria, but please. From a distance, they appear to be as legit as the recent Chicago Mayoral runoff.
If you’re like me, you take, at minimum, great comfort in the presence of Israel – warts and all. They’re not above a bit of chicanery now and then. There is a widely known story about incessant American fundraising for the development and support of the country’s citrus crop. When I was a kid, every year, they’d come to school and cajole us to buy a tree that would supposedly bear our name. As James Michener records in “The Source” – immediately upon landing on an El Al jet at Ben Gurion Airport (equidistant from Jerusalem, and Tel Aviv and named after the guy that took the job Einstein turned down) every single American would demand to see their tree. Whereupon each would be driven to a single, forlorn citrus grove in Jafa and shown the same depleted orchard.
It was a well-rendered scam (kind of like those folks who, for a price, will name a star after you), but it has not impeded the alarming rise in the price of Orange Juice over the last several months.
Somebody help me here. What gives?
I was under the impression that nobody drinks Orange Juice anymore, finding that it has all the nutritional qualities (but none of the taste) of A&W Root Beer.
Yet the price of the stuff they used to sell from vending carts on every street corner in New York has doubled in little more than a year. Probably, you didn’t notice, because, like me, you may not have choked down a glass of the pulpy potable in at least ten years.
Israel is also infamous as being the one jurisdiction in the Middle East that does not produce fossil fuels. Because there are none of the associated raw materials under its sacred soil. Meantime, those countries around the world rich in this vital natural resource are, for different reasons, weaponizing its production (including, unfortunately, the USA).
As this evolves, the smart hedge fund crew is loading up on the long side of the bubbling crude:
But we’ve other (gefilte) fish to fry this coming week. We’ll get our first look at Q1 GDP on Thursday, and most estimates call for 2% or greater, which ain’t too bad in my book for an economy said to be careening into nasty recession.
Beyond this, and mostly because it cannot be deferred any longer, most of the High Priests of Tech report this week. I wish I could gin up more interest/enthusiasm for the attendant, pending drama, but, right now, it’s not in me. There are certain signs that tech is overvalued and others that the associated earnings picture is bleak. But I’m not sure it matters, as, to borrow further from the Old Testament, Cathie Wood’s ARK may be there to save the day.
Our public servants in Washington will also make their collective presence known. We’re still a fortnight away from the next Fed release, but, in the interim, we can busy ourselves outflanking one another in hysteria over the debt ceiling drama, and the possibility of a default of our paper. It’s not clear when we hit said ceiling; estimates range from Memorial Day to Labor Day. Meantime, opportunities for bi-partisan political brinksmanship abound.
Do what you like, here. I elect to ignore most of this.
I don’t, in the meanwhile, see much likely to move the markets. Not stocks. Not bonds. Not FX. Not commodities. Not crypto.
Perhaps it’s a good time for me to visit Israel. To which I’ve never been. To see my trees, as by my estimate, I bought at least a dozen of them.
I reckon I’ll wait, though, until the Yom Ha’atzmaut celebrations die down. I note the milestone as a significant one but do my rejoicing over here.
Because 75 years is a pretty good run. One that coincides with the period of American Exceptionalism, where this country has been pre-eminent in political, economic, cultural, and social affairs. We have, of course, benefitted greatly as a result, but to the best of my judgment, the rest of the world hasn’t fared that badly either.
Among our most prominent prerogatives has been support of the State of Israel and my own belief is that the latter would never have survived in its present condition without this bounty.
Our position as the world’s global superpower has perhaps never been more threatened than it is today, and, of course, nothing lasts forever. If we are superseded by, say, China, or India (the latter, as widely reported, just passed the former in total population), it’s not clear to me that they will continue to sponsor that fluky little Jewish state. More probably, there will be no f@cks give about, and perhaps outright hostility towards, the Land of Milk and Honey, home of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob. Birthplace and sight of Execution/Resurrection of one Jesus of Nazareth.
So, here’s to you, Israel. I look forward to visiting your shores and (fair warning) inspecting my trees.
But, come what may, I think I’ll take a pass on any orange juice that is offered up to me.
Particularly at these prices, I reckon I can put that ritual off for another decade.
Or at least until Tisha B’av – now just three short months away.
TIMSHEL