As a matter of pure vibe, I believe it’s time to lay some Willie Shake on y’all.
Our titular quote, perhaps my favorite Shakespeare line, is a throwaway in one of The Bard’s lesser- appreciated works — Measure for Measure.
M4M has an interesting if somewhat convoluted plot, focusing on the pending execution of some cat for making pre-marital love to his fiancé. A local nun comes to plead on his behalf, and this fair virgin is offered a diabolical deal from a demonic deputy (the transitory holder of absolute Viennese authority, devolved upon him by virtue of the temporary absence of a much-more-reasonable Duke) wherein she is empowered to save the poor son of a bitch’s life by yielding her favors to the evil bureaucrat.
Of course, one must wade through a significant amount of indecipherable posey to capture the good stuff. But such is always the case with WS, who I will cop to not fully appreciating. I recognize his singular brilliance. But – Not Gonna Lie – it is seldom the case that I select his works for entertainment purposes alone. One must admit, nonetheless, that our title quote is both sublime and eerily applicable to the entire human experience. Nine short words that summarize the patent unfairness of the world as we find it.
And all so thoroughly relevant, at least in my judgment, to our current conditions.
So, who (or what) is currently rising by sin? Well, obviously, the markets come to mind. Not that they’ve sinned themselves, because “they” aren’t even a “they” but rather an “it”.
A portion of the fault (not in our stars, dear Brutus, but in ourselves (JULIUS CAESAR (I, II, 140-141)), must certainly be assigned to investors, who: a) have plainly risen; and b) have been inarguably sinful. But I am not here to lecture investors, who: 1) are my professional paymasters; and who 2) by bidding up stocks are only acting according to their nature.
So, let’s focus instead on other entities where sin has evoked rising.
First, on somewhat of a mixed note, the RDDT (AITA) IPO can only be designated a triumph, the reality that the Company catalogues a multitude of sins notwithstanding. It priced at the top of the range and promptly rallied 40% at on the first day of trading, before nominally coming back to earth on Friday.
Did RDDT rise by sin? By virtue, did it fall? You decide. Or, alternatively, you can consult r/AskReddit (#2 on the subreddit hit parade),
That, however, is mere sideshow. The main action, unsurprisingly, transpires in Washington, which might be deemed Sin City for the purposes of this note.
To begin with, risk assets received yet another boost from those sinners at the Fed, who recommitted to three rate cuts this year. What they hope to accomplish by this transgression is beyond my range of understanding. An economy growing at 2-3%, with full employment is a Milton Friedman wet dream. Inflation is way down but showing stubborn resilience, and is, in fact, on the rise.
As observed in last week’s note, I am unaware of any previous episode in economic history wherein a Central Bank cut rates into a robust growth environment, with full employment, AND inflation statistics on an upswing. However, the policy statement did put lead into the proverbial investor pencil — AND may just give a little goose to incumbents across town who must run for-reelection this year.
But elected officials are certainly not relying upon Fed largesse alone. The Administration recently published a ballsy $7.3T budget proposal, featuring free cheese for nearly all. Except the military, which was assigned an inflation-adjusted reduction in its budget — with two nasty wars raging, with Putin threatening nuclear conflict, with China arming to the teeth.
With the mullahs having pulled off its second historic terrorist PR coup in a generation (9/11, among other matters, was a master stroke, continuing to impose billions of dollars of costs on the West – all for the price of a few plane tickets and box cutters). This time, they have managed to convert an horrific, unprovoked terrorist attack into a Star Chamber Inquisition of Israeli demonization, causing the (Jewish) Senate Majority Leader to call for regime change in another jurisdiction, and forcing enormous pressure on the IDF to either pull back, having, by doing so, accomplished nothing, or proceed with the destruction of their attackers, and, by such action, incurring the world’s incremental wrath.
There’s talk of Netanyahu addressing a joint session of Congress. I would advise against this, as it is nothing more than a redux of that episode nearly a decade ago. I said at the time that his remarks, designed to discourage the U.S. from entering into that Iranian nuclear agreement, that nothing would serve so fully to ensure that a petulant Obama would ink the deal.
And I was right. And now, the mullahs are raging. On our dime. Meantime, the United States Navy retires its already obsolete submarine fleet with no plans for replacement.
But we are certainly spending money that we don’t have on other stuff. It took more than two centuries for the Federales to amass its first $1 Trillion of debt. At the current, accelerating pace, we now turn this trick every three months. We hit $35T in the next few weeks, including $1.2T authorized late Friday under emergency conditions (lest we breach the 467th debt ceiling limit this century). It was a feat of bi- partisan heroism. But, in its aftermath, the cranky, squawky contingent of the Republican, er, coalition (whose majority will soon be down to a single vote), called, yet again, for the head of the Speaker of the House – a position that no one else seems to be able to secure, or, for that matter, wants.
They’s also fixin to raise taxes by a whole bunch. And not only at the Federal level. The folks in Sacramento, Albany, Trenton, Springfield are a little short, and could use a boost. You can afford it, so, why not?
On paper at least, The Big Orange is also rising by sin. The NY SS Brigade is squeezing his red/yellow nuts to the tune of a half Bill. But one a happier note, he has fully consolidated his control of the GOP, AND, is about to book > $3B of profits on one of those goofy blank check SPACs – tied to a Social Media site that no one has ever visited.
Col. Naz, in the meanwhile, closed at yet another all-time high on Friday, and is annualizing at an impressive 45% thus far in ’24.
But I reckon, now, though wearying (and certainly less interesting), we must turn to the virtuously fallen. I begin by proclaiming that I resisted the temptation to submit an AI-generated March Madness sheet. In fact, I skipped the proceedings altogether and thus can do no better (and no worse) than breaking even. I feel cleansed by my forbearance here, but I am in no ways spared from descent into heartbreak. Wiscy lost in Round 1 – to James Madison University – the alma mater of Ben Finkelstein (yes, that Ben Finkelstein).
Elsewhere, the vaunted Bank of Japan – the last holdout — has finally ended more than a decade of sinful negative interest rate policy, and, by removing the transgression, has placed itself on a path towards righteousness. One would think this would have given a boost to the Yen, but one would be wrong on that score:
Nipponophiles can solace themselves in the performance of the NK 2-2-5 – up a gaudy 22% this young year and annualizing at an eye-popping 140%. This on the heels of the prolonged celebrations tied to their recapture of highs last breached in the early ‘90s.
Finally, as we enter Holy Week, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the virtuous fall of Yeshayahu of Nazareth. I won’t delve into his resurrection, as it is outside of my field of expertise.
I do believe it is possible to rise by virtue and fall by sin. I aspire to the former.
No, it won’t be easy. It never is. But even in M4M (SPOILER ALERT) it all comes sorta right in the end. Turns out, the Big Duke never left town. Instead, he bounced around incognito to spy on the deputy. As it all winds up, the poor lover wins his liberty, the deputy is arrested, and the Duke proposes to the nun.
I won’t promise that outcome, but as we approach this righteous holiday, it can, at minimum, be our hoped-for result.
After all, it certainly beats the ending of Hamlet, MacBeth or King Lear.
TIMSHEL