Wasted and wounded, t’aint what the moon did, I got what I paid for now,
See ya tomorrow, hey Frank, can I borrow, a couple of bucks from you?
To go waltzing Matilda, waltzing Matilda, you’ll go waltzing Matilda with me
Tom Waits
You may not get what you paid for, but you will pay for what you get.
Maya Angelou
A word, as we approach the mid-point of summer, about the wages of obtaining.
To assist, I’ve selected two passages, the first of which is the opening lines of “Tom Traubert’s Blues”, a catchy variation on the old Aussie folk song about waltzing with the lovely Matilda (whoever she is). I liked it (and the song) so much that I selected it as the quote that launched the intro to my first book, the now-immortalized “Trading Risk” (J. S. Wiley and Sons, 2004 ISBN 13: 978-0471650911).
Trading, after all is like a waltz – one in which you seek to get what you pay for (and, ideally, a little bit more). And as I was determined to take readers on a musical, 3/4 boogie through the markets, I thought it was a propos. Problem was (or so my inestimably helpful publishers told me) that Tom Waits: a) never allows the use of his material by others; and b) is notoriously litigious. We agreed that while TW was unlikely to ever even learn about the usage of his work in some obscure risk management book, it
simply wasn’t worth the hazard. I was thus forced to substitute in the original song, describing a swagman camped along a Billabong, seeking a partner named Matilda and asking her for a waltz.
I don’t even know what either a swagman or a Billabong is, but that song is “traditional”, part of the Public Domain, and, as such, immunized from the caprices of copyright law. And, as the book was about risk management, the decision, I feel, was the right one.
Our other quote is a non-published remark from the immortal Maya Angelou, whose resume is about as content laden as the Manhattan telephone booth. Of humble means, she worked as a cook, (unfortunate though true) sex worker, singer, actress, civil rights activist, diplomat, poet, and educator.
In terms of the last of these, she spent the final generation of her life as a chair-endowed Professor at Wake Forest University, and I had wondered more than once how she ended up there. In the heart of tobacco country, on a campus that was a converted tobacco farm, where her forebears, presumably, toiled in chained servitude for plantation owners. Seems a little odd to me, but no judgment intended.
Both speak of the prospects of getting what one pays for, and paying for what one gets. And both, in my judgment, contain an element of authenticity, as elaborated upon below.
As this is the political season, perhaps beginning in these realms is unavoidable.
The Big Donkey Money Machine switched itself off in the lead-up to the sandbagging of Old Joe. Having achieved this (rational) objective, they have opened wide their wallets in support of his anointed successor, who, as predicted in this space on multiple occasions, and instantaneously: a) achieved an alchemic level of credibility; and b) could actually grab the big prize.
Our betters, in other words, have gotten what they paid for. But for us mere mortals, it’s impossible to ignore the reality that the caucus who has urgently implored us that they alone can save a democracy which they believe to be hanging by a thread has selected its savior in back room deals, sought to manipulate ballot rules in both primary and general elections, and given various other demonstrations that, while they believe in nothing as much as rule by consent of the governed, if it’s all the same to us, they’d sorta like to take charge of things on their own – at least for now.
Again, I think Harris can win. I don’t think she will, but the outcome is now in doubt. And I anticipate a good deal of bad behavior – on both sides – between then and now. As one example of how far matters have devolved, the sorry spectacle of no one from the Dem leadership showing up to Bibi’s speech, AND one legislative representative of this great nation sitting in the audience and flashing, to the leader of its staunchest ally, signs with dainty phrases like “War Criminal”, comes to mind. This, it must be noted, is the side that claims a monopoly on righteousness.
But righteousness is in scarce supply everywhere. And – you read it here first – I think that Team Trump will pull all available invisible strings to ensure the maximum disruption of the Dem Convention. They have a great incentive to do so, the process will be easy as all they need to do is to incentivize a few extra nutbags already inclined to impair the proceedings to do their worst, and, one way or another, I DOUBT they will give the Democratic Party the chance to out-Woodstock their Milwaukee love fest.
Whoever wins will have paid a price, will have paid for what they got. Here’s hoping it was worth it.
In the markets, writ large at any rate, we’ve bought ourselves a rally that is more than a triple bagger
since those lockdowns knocked us on our asses.
Problem is, of, course, that we paid for it with newly minted fiat currency, backed by nothing more than the dubious promises of increasingly perfidious global administrative machines. It’s been a winner thus far. But I believe it would be fair to say that the jury is still out. Investors were in full-on rageful rampage for most of the week, before regaining their equanimity and ending the cycle with a gratifying rally.
My guess is that they’re not, on balance, done buying. And getting what they paid for.
On the obverse side of this – proving that sometimes you pay for what you not only don’t get, but actually shun, we learned on Friday that the Federales have indicted notorious short seller Andrew Left, for serial manipulation of selected securities. I truly don’t know the merits of the case, but have found, historically, that federal prosecutors, even in L.A., seldom bring charges against anyone they’re not pretty sure of convicting.
But my general experience is that consumers, at any rate, pays for what they get – if not sooner, then later, and this is one reason I was disturbed to read that both overall consumer debt AND credit card delinquencies have reached a generational high:
I dunno, Maya, it sure seems like SOMEBODY is getting something WITHOUT paying for it. Of course, it must be allowed that these somebodies is gonna need to pay The Man eventually. The only question is if they can, in this world, achieve this far-flung inevitability. If not, it may be, you know, problematic for us all.
The Central Banks print money. Politicians put thumbs on the scales. Short sellers get busted.
The rest of us are left to confront the carnage. Probably, it’s our mess to clean up, our job to pay the bill. Because, as Professor Angelou reminds us, payment will indeed be forthcoming.
It’s all melancholy enough to revert to “Tom Traubert’s Blues”:
Now the dogs they are barking, and the taxicab’s parking, A lot they can do for me,
I begged you to stab me, you tore my shirt open,
And I’m down on my knees tonight,
And Old Bushmills are staggered, you buried the dagger,
In your silhouette window light,
Well, at any rate, that’s Tom’s take. I’d offer something from Maya, but, shamefully, I have never consumed any of her content.
She’s ten years gone, and my guess is that she shed her mortal coil with a clean balance sheet.
The rest of us? Not so much. We’ll ultimately have to pay down our debts, including the couple a bucks we owe Frank. He’s waiting, after all, and when the music has stopped in our waltz with Matilda, he’ll have every reason to expect us to make good.
Be forewarned.
TIMSHEL