I’m Moe Green. I made my bones when you were still going out with cheerleaders.
GF1
It is often said that life imitates The Godfather. OK, maybe nobody ever said this. But they ought to have. And now, more than ever, it’s true.
The Don is firmly in control, having worked his way to domination through the hotel/casino business. He has rudely, and with finality, dispatched virtually all his enemies, and nearly the all the threats to his empire, which he now seeks to expand to even greater proportions. Most everyone he encounters is afeared to fuck with him, and those that are foolish enough to try are known to pay a terrible price.
Consider, for example, the case of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who plays the role of Moe Green to such perfection that he gave me the idea in the first instance.
Anyone not living under a rock this last 50+ years is aware that when The Don told Moe he was taking over, he responded, with petulance, in the following manner:
“I talked to Barzini. I can make a deal with him and still keep my hotel”.
More recently, VZ has been dancing with the European Barzinis — as a potential hedge against Trump being, well, Trump. And, after that Oval Office meeting – reminiscent of nothing so much as the GF1 Vegas encounter, off to Europe he went. Matters have evolved since then, and one way or another, we can bid him Godspeed with respect to his Continental diplomacy.
But that there trade didn’t work out so well for Moe. Or, for that matter, for Barzini. And it won’t for Z either, who I say will be gone one way or another after his White House tirade. If he fails to cut a deal with the U.S., his own peeps will take him out. On the other side, I bet it all that any such deal will include his removal as a pre-condition. Because you don’t fuck with The Don.
But let’s move on. Casting about for a suitable role in which to insert the ubiquitous Mr. Musk, I feel we have two choices. There’s the inarticulate Luca Brasi: the muscle of the Family. Alternatively, we have Tom Hagan – the outsider who can never be made, the advisor/fixer — seeking to guide strategy, and failing badly when The Don was laid up with several bullet wounds.
I think we must shade towards the latter.
Sonny? J.D. Vance. Hands down. The hot-headed heir-apparent, who, even in these early days, has shown a disturbing tendency to “talk when he should be listening”.
With a little creative thinking, we can easily assign the part of Fredo — to Hunter Biden. Yes, he plays for the other team, but beyond that, he’s perfect. A weak-minded mediocrity, resentful of his second fiddle status in The Family, but only too happy to live on its reputation and largesse. He is best suited for carrying suitcases of cash, delivering them to shady associates, and of course (and in the words of Moe Green) for “banging cocktail waitresses two at a time”.
Rather than shoehorn other players into supporting characters, I turn to a more important question. We know that 47 is The Don, but which is he – Don Vito or Don Michael? On the campaign trail, he exuded a discernible Vito vibe – playing justice-for-all, loving Elder Statesman. Heck, he even got himself shot and survived – just like Brando’s character did.
But since taking office, he’s been pure Michael, never able to forget a slight, placing retribution against those who have crossed him at the top of his priority list – often at the expense of more pressing business.
Did Michael, for instance, really need to kill Fredo? An ineffectual loser who, in the end, posed absolutely no threat to him? No more so than Trump insisting, without negotiation, to slap punitive tariffs on our northern and southern neighbors.
But it’s all disruptive, and, I believe, we are paying a price in the markets.
Our equity indices just concluded their worst week in six months. Taking us all the way back to September when Kamala (aka Phillip Tataglia) was surging in the polls, hoovering up (and as it proved later, blowing) cash at record levels.
Absent Friday’s low-energy, late afternoon rally, it would’ve been worse. Still and all, Col. Naz remains within a hair’s breadth of entering correction territory. All of which runs against the narrative of the great economic prosperity awaiting us that we all embraced in the earliest parts of the year.
It was (is) a slow data period, with about the only information drop of note being a somewhat tepid February Jobs Report. Investors viewed this as a modest positive. As well they might’ve — because the it offered additional vague justification for rate cuts that did not appear to be on the cards as recently as a month ago. The winds are likely to continue to blow ill in employment-land though, what, with The Don and his Consigliere firing government workers by the thousands, with trade wars escalating to a boil…
But Exhibit A for this is the “can’t-look-away” GDP Now estimate:
All of which creates some unpleasant contingencies to contemplate. For example, one under which the Georgia boys are proved to be near right, the trade wars worsen, and inflation (CPI and PPI drop this week) fails to abate – in significant part due to tariffs that jack up the price of autos, auto parts, the virtually infinite amount of lumber we import from Canada, and the meds we buy from China to keep us (or at any rate, me) from going completely batshit.
And as such, the Fed deems it wise to hold the line.
It’d be a tough slog for investors, but let’s be clear: this is not the scenario I envision. However, it is becoming more plausible by the day. And surely some, if not all, of these contingencies are likely to become reality.
Well, then, it’s no wonder that investors are becoming increasingly gun shy.
And it’s not just those carpal tunnel-plagued wretches that buy and sell securities. I sense a further uneasiness in the productive components of the economy. Where companies are formed, where R&D grinds away, where workers are hired, go forth and consume, etc.
I suspect that on the margin, these agents are reluctant to operate with assertiveness – due in large part to the uncertainties attendant to the domestic and geopolitical situation. One can hardly blame them. But I suspect that unless and until they obtain a more thorough handle on the risks of action that are beyond their control, they will continue to believe they are operating with a weak hand and act accordingly.
Of all the relevant exposures, it strikes me that tariffs against our neighbors is the most acute. And like the Corleones before us, these moves can cripple our purported rivals, but only at a non-insignificant cost to ourselves:
I think there’s a better way. I like the Mexicans and Canadians and wonder if this we shouldn’t instead train our fire on our real adversaries – including Hyman Roth (China?), Rosato Brothers (Russia?) or even the perfidious Frankie Five Fingers (France?). But no one asked me. I’m neither made nor connected. Not Italian, Catholic or even Christian.
Nope, like most of you, I’m on the outside looking in. I will indeed hope for the best and in fact believe that the markets will settle down — and given all that vig-absent cash floating around, even rally.
Meantime, I will seek to avoid crossing The Don. He’s in large and in charge. For now. And I don’t wanna end up like Moe, who, during a massage, was the recipient of a bullet through his eyeglasses.
Yup, it’s best to lay low, which, for now is the best risk management advice I can offer. The Godfather usually wins. Until he doesn’t.
But in order to avoid the fate of Moe, Paulie, the heads of the other 4 families, or even Sonny, Fredo and Luca, taking a reactive approach often wins the day. And though that day may never come, should he knock on my door, he will find me at home.
TIMSHEL