We take our title, in modified form, from a 1967 book called “You Can’t Steal First Base”. It was co- authored by baseball lifer Jimmy Dykes, who played and managed for > 40 years, and someone named Charles O. Dexter, a vicarious baseball junkie whose main claim to fame is apparently to have authored 73 books on America’s (erstewhile) National Pastime.
I do not know what angle Jim and Chucky O. took here, can’t recommend the book because I never read it and don’t intend to.
Quite frankly, baseball bores the daylights out of me.
But the title makes a good point. According to the rules of baseball at any rate, you can’t steal first. And I got to thinking about this upon reading that the guys at the Head Office, in their measured benevolence, have re-instated Shoeless Joe Jackson and Pete Rose. As both are dead, the sole motivation for this action is to pave the way for their long overdue induction into the Hall of Fame.
Until last week, both were banned — for engaging in behavior deemed to have been detrimental to the, er, integrity of the game: Jackson (on scant proof) for allegedly throwing the 1919 World Series, Rose for betting on games in which he had a vested interest. FWIW, the former, in a ban-shortened career of 12 years, maintained a batting average that remains in the All Time Top 5. It also bears mention that in the fall classic episode in question, he had a Major League Record 12 hits – including a home run in the series finale which has the distinction of being the first round tripper ever recorded in a World Series.
As to Rose, his threshold of 4,256 hits is one of those records which may never be broken (the leader among active players – Freddie Freeman — has, over 17 seasons, amassed just over half this total). He played on 3 championship teams, during which he switch hit, and played 1st Base, 2nd Base, 3rd Base, and both of the flanking outfield positions.
That he wasn’t a great guy is a point conceded (for instance, he ruined the career of a pretty good catcher named Ray Fosse — by pulling a Jack Tatum on him during an All Star game), and maybe neither was Jackson. But if off the field qualities/character were truly a pre-requisite: a) the Hall of Fame might be pretty windy and cavernous; and b) I’m not sure any franchise could even put a team on the field.
Moreover, the league may wish to consider it’s own sketchy history. In 1994, for instance, a labor dispute between owners and players (both of whom, of course, care about nothing other than the fans) that negated the season, costing the organizations ome goodwill and cash for the next couple of seasons. But towards the end of that decade, something truly magical happened. Balls began sailing out of stadiums at a previously unimaginable clip. In 1998 alone, not one but two players shattered the all-time-single- season home run record, held by Roger Maris for 34 years — between 1927 and 1961, when he somewhat blasphemously eclipsed the 60-mark set by The Babe. Nobody then topped Roger till ’98.
Maris got 61 in ’61 (albeit over a season by which then was 7 games longer). In the many decades between Babe and him, only a dozen guys went yard more than 50 times. None did so again until ’97, when Mark McGwire took 58 trips downtown. McGwire set the record the following year with 70, shattering the previous thresholds by nearly 20%. Sammy Sosa cranked out 69 in that same campaign. And, in the fateful year of 2001, Barry Bonds topped them all — with 73. At present the top 6 slots on this list are held by Bonds, McGwire and Sosa (who holds, in different seasons, the 3rd, 5th and 6th slots).
As a statistician, I can assure you that the probabilities associated with half a dozen guys slamming > 60 dingers — after 7 decades during which there are only 15 instances of > 50, are so minute that they render the purchase of a winning Powerball ticket, by comparison, a sure bet.
Even at the tine I knew the fix was in, and wouldn’t you know it? A few years later, the steroid scandal broke open. Lots of guys were on the juice, but the headliners were Bonds, McGwire and Sosa.
So, I say let’s allot Cooperstown slots on the basis of merit alone, and welcome in both Pete and Joe. No, they couldn’t steal 1st, but may they at long last find their way into the shrine to which admittance they are justifiably entitled. And maybe, MLB should do a little moral housekeeping of its own.
It is closer to our main subjects of interests – the markets – where we find perhaps the exception to our titular truism. Due to a longstanding antitrust exemption, owners of professional sports teams are entitled to write off their entire investments – effectively cutting the costs of their venture outlays in half.
This, to my way of thinking, is as close to stealing first base as any protocol under heaven. However, in Washington, where settling on a viable tax strategy is vital to all our interests, there’s talk of cutting this gift in half — or eliminating it altogether. I’m sorta neutral on this one. But I won’t cry any tears for them fat cats if they get whacked here. And I don’t expect that much of the public will either.
And there’s not a great deal to celebrate from the broader fields of such public policy. The latest news trickle suggests that the tax deal is stuck in committee, and, on Friday, we received word that the Moody’s Rating Agency has, at long last, cut the credit rating of our sovereign paper below the heretofore pristine level of Aaa. We are now down to Aa1, perhaps enough to cop us a spiffy contract, but insufficient credentials for Cooperstown.
Moody’s main competitor: Standard and Poors, had dinged us long ago, in the (for me) tragic year of 2011 and catalyzing, in my opinion perhaps the biggest Inside Trade in modern market history. The date was August 5th. A Friday. I smelled a rate from the “play ball” outset, as both equities and Treasuries were in free fall from open to close. We later learned that the brain trust at Standard and Poors, having decided to downgrade our govies, queried the major banks as to, if they theoretically wanted to make the change, when would be the best time to do it. All the banking heads agreed that the ideal approach was a Clintonian Friday afternoon news dump,, and then immediately instructed to their trading desks to sell everything.
Aside from the afore-mentioned antitrust exemption, this is about as close as one can get to stealing 1st base in the liquid markets.
More broadly, the United States has been stealing first for 80 years, since exiting WWII as the world’s only viable global economic jurisdiction. Among other bennies this has brung is our status as the Reserve Currency and a virtually unlimited demand for our national paper. The associated advantages we have gained are almost incalculable.
Smart folks have been warning of the demise of this regime since I’ve been in this business. Which is a long time. And, fact is, I truly don’t understand how we retain it. But retain it we do. Maybe the Moodys canary is lying sideways in our coal mine, but we’ve thought and said that before.
The markets have attempted a first base theft from January on, and have come up empty. Only this past week have they regained the ground yielded by fears caused by the Trumpian scorched earth approach to economic policy. No, we haven’t toughed out a walk, and to say we got a hit is perhaps a stretch as well. As of now, though, we’re at any rate back in the Batter’s Box, which is a good thing.
Especially seeing as how we’re now in the back half of Q2, with other than (yet again) NVDA on the docket, there’s little of economic import in the upcoming data flows. Meantime, nobody can complain too much about what was reported in the earnings cycle, but guidance? Another matter entirely:
I’m not sure how anyone could’ve expected anything different. The trade policy alone offered an irresistible temptation to temper expectation, and, of course, CEOs like nothing better than to beat their earlier estimates, so as to exceed them during the portion of the calendar where they get paid.
Many, if not most, took the opportunity, and thus far by and large with impunity insofar as the associated impact upon stock prices is considered.
Particularly for those interested in the pipe dream of rate cuts, last week was a good inning. Inflation numbers – especially PPI – came in light. U Mich Consumer Sentiment was second lowest on record. Advanced indication on home sales is rather ominous. We’ll know more next week.
So, with Inflation on the down, Q1 GDP a modest negative, pressure on the housing market and such, calls for a mid-year rate cut are likely to grow louder.
Won’t happen. The last thing Chair Pow likely to do is to award a base to a President that has shown nothing but disdain for him. And, unless the latter plans to steal first by co-opting our Central Bank, there’s not much he can do about it.
This won’t sit well with the big guy, accustomed as he is to stealing first. In addition to wielding arguably extra-constitutional powers, his crew is operating 5 publicly traded companies, 2 cryptocurrency units, his own for-profit media outlet, and, of course, a brand new, tricked out 747-8 – courtesy of the Qataris. He’s over there in the Middle East on a trade and diplomatic mission, but he has managed to find the time to cut a few hotel development deals along the way.
Quite a feat for the Leader of the Free World, but perhaps somewhat short of the standards set by Madison, Hamilton and Jay, as set forth in the Federalist Papers.
For now at any rate, the markets couldn’t seem to give a care.
Yes, it’s tough out there. But nobody said it would be easy. The Bambino had to go up against Walter Johnson; Maris against Warren Spahn. Pete Rose battled Koufax and Gibson (among others).Our above- mentioned PED-filled trio went to bat in an era that featured Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens. We know for certain that at least one of these guys was on the juice. But none of them. Not one. Ever stole first base. Not one time. Because it can’t be done.
Nope, we’re gonna have to earn what we get, and here’s hoping it’s worth it. Currently, there is both opportunity and hazard. Only judgment, prudence and discipline will carry us through. We can do this, and that’s the good news.
Let’s just hope we won’t need, like Jackson and Rose, to have been planted in the ground ere we receive our reward.
TIMSHEL