Amazona, Is a zone where
There is no doubt, No more fall-out
Why don’t you step, Through the mirror and see?
Bryan Ferry
With a couple of caveats — I’m glad Roxy Music made it into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.
First, the institution suffers from a major credibility gap — through its omission of such obviously deserving bands as (among others) Mott the Hoople, the New York Dolls, Emerson Lake and Palmer, Blue Oyster Cult (who at least retain the dignified consolation of having been inducted into the Long Island Entertainment Hall of Fame), and The Smashing Pumpkins.
Beyond this, like so many other great ensembles, Roxy ran out of steam pretty quick. Their first two albums, deeply influenced by Eno’s manning of the keyboard bench, are incomparable. The first one is self-titled; the second’s title is identical to that of this note.
It is their third album, though, that is my favorite. Eno was gone, and Ferry had taken over full stop. The music changed, but arguably, for a time, for the better.
Because that record – Stranded – is impeccable – featuring such gems as Mother of Pearl. And Amazona – the theme for this week’s analysis.
And while I may be late to the party, I realized that we – all of us – have entered Amazona: a zone where there is no doubt. Or fall-out.
But what (or where) is Amazona? Wikipedia, to which I recently donated the princely sum of $52 (after repeated solicitations, I stroked in $50, whereupon they asked me if I wanted to add another two-spot, leaving me with no viable alternative other than to accede) indicates that it is either a genus of parrots or a Portuguese horsewoman.
OK; fair enough, but Ferry, by contrast, suggests it’s a state of mind, and I like that too.
Because there I was the other night, in a football-starved condition, bleakly anticipating the long cold winter that follows the Super Bowl and thus tuned in to the (otherwise unwatchable) Falcons/Bucs broadcast on Amazon Prime. This is far from a first. Team Bezos has been airing one-off games for a couple of years now. But what hit me this time was that during each commercial, my television screen availed me with an option to, at the physical expense of a single click, buy the advertised product.
Maybe this had been going on for a long time, but it was new to me. So, by halftime, I found myself the proud owner of a brand-new Jeep Grand Cherokee, multiple drugs of (to me) unknown application and episodically redundant insurance policies issued by Progressive, Geico and Liberty Mutual.
This marks my entrance into the new world – one where, when enjoying electronic entertainment, not only am I tantalized by the possibility of refreshing beverages and new age pillows but can purchase them as a fluid part of the viewing experience.
Thus far, and to the best of my knowledge, CBS, NBC and ESPN are unable to match this product distribution prowess, and I fear that this will soon redound to their detriment.
And, from this perspective, it seems to me that Amazona should’ve been on For Your Pleasure, instead of Stranded. On the other hand, if one indeed finds oneself stranded, one could do worse than logging into Amazon Prime, and for one’s pleasure, purchasing whatever is offered by associated content sponsors.
The experience, for me, was a glimpse of the future, and lord help us when AI gets its act together and takes over the show. At which point ALL our technology will assault us with enough personally and precisely curated purchase prompts to beggar us into eternity.
But as anyone who was paying attention is aware, AI took it on the chin a bit in the markets this past week, as NVDA wannabes Oracle and Broadcom reported disappointments in the synthetic cognition elements of their enterprises. Which were of sufficient magnitude to place a damper on what otherwise was shaping up to be a pretty fair weekly showing for the equity complex.
To wit, the Gallant 500 breached (albeit modest) new heights on late in the week, before the above-named transgressors cast it down by an alarming >1% on Friday.
Prior to that, I found the vibe to be surprisingly upbeat, as driven, improbably, by a .25% Fed Rate Cut that everyone knew was in the bag. Chair Pow was rather dour in his subsequent remarks, hinting that future such actions would be few and far between.
But he’s out. By May at the latest, and I continue to believe that his exit will transpire earlier, as part of an effort by the Administration to co-opt the FOMC for political purposes. However, the latter showed some stones this past week by unanimously reappointing 11 out of 12 voting members (the 12th – Atlanta Fed Chair Raphael W. Bostic – is pending resignation at the end of the year).
This renders 45/47’s path towards interest rate hegemony more difficult, but that is not to say he won’t succeed or at least try.
Because the electoral winds, as most recently exemplified by Miami’s having voted in its first Democratic Mayor in three decades, are blowing strong and ominous against him and his supporters. And these cats are known for neither their decorum nor strict adherence to established rules of engagement.
But sneakily, the Fed rendered some improbable aid and comfort in other forms to investors, specifically by initiating the purchase of ~$40B of its own securities this past Friday. In so announcing (at Wednesdays presser), Powell mumbled some gobbledygook about offsetting a growing challenge of reserve deficiencies. But I’m not picking up what he’s laying down.
Because in ancient times, these trades (the financial markets equivalent of copping a case of Bud Lite through an advertising link on a TV football game) were referred to as Quantitative Easing. And, particularly when Big Orange gets his man into the Fed Chairmanship, he and Bessent will indeed be cramming down rates.
Across the board and to beat the band.
The other market factor within his partial control – Commodities – has been for months showing signs of political manipulation which I expect to continue well into next year. Crude Oil – that most politically sensitized of commodities, is down nearly 20% in 2025. Wheat and Corn have yielded ground as well.
Precious metals, however, are a different story, which is not surprising given their historical reluctance to do the bidding of elected officials during periods of political strife. Copper is up >30%; Gold >60%. The biggest winner, though, is Silver, risen an astonishing 114% over this fast-expiring year.
This odd set of price trajectories has created a construct, not witnessed since 1980, where a single troy ounce of Silver carries sufficient value to purchase an entire barrel of Crude Oil
One way of looking at this is that when viewing a football game on Amazon Prime and considering (among other expenditure options) single click purchases of fine cutlery or petrol for one’s automobile, whether one would prefer to secure approximately two fill ups at the pump (42 gallons/bbl), or a single small silver spoon (weight range 1-2.5 troy oz.).
For me, this would present such a vexing quandary as to cause me to switch from the Falcons/Bucs game to the (commercial free) Ken Burns Revolutionary War series.
In further support of that trusty truism: what goes ‘round comes ‘round, and as identified by the WSJ as evidence of an AI-driven redux of 1990s dot.com risk, web infrastructure darling CSCO – the NVDA of its day – has just this past week regained the high ground it last achieved a generation ago:
CSCO’s millennial collapse was indeed rapid and frightening; its full recovery glacial, largely unremarked/unnoticed. But, while instructive, it probably has minimal implications for our fortunes in the dozen trading days that remain in 2025. One could also argue that the real action ceases by this Friday, as both Christmas and New Years fall disruptively in the middle of the subsequent two weeks.
Data-wise, and somewhat tardily, the November Jobs Report drops on Tuesday. And about the only other statistics on the ’25 docket are Friday’s release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment surveys.
But in terms of the latter, my advice is either to ignore the results or expect them to be artificially suppressed. Because given recent doings in Ann Arbor, one can only assume that the mood there is some combination of distracted and depressed.
But, perhaps, the less written about this the better.
Other than this; 1) the recent shenanigans at U of M have led to the temporary elevation to the exalted position of Head Football Coach of a guy who formed a successful hedge fund during the Bo Schembechler era; and 2) it has put at risk the largest-by-a-wide-margin NIL deal between the University and its starting Quarterback.
One can take a dim view of these outcomes. Or, like me, deem them as yet further examples of capitalism and free enterprise backing itself up all the way.
But now my Beauty Queens (Side 1, Track 2 of FYP), the time has come for us to become un-stranded, and to begin acting for our pleasure.
One can presumably achieve partial success in this regard in Amazona. During the Falcons/Bucs broadcast. With remote at the ready. And — whether it brings you a Portuguese horsewoman or a flock of parrots – I wish you due happiness.
However, from a risk management perspective, you’re on your own on that one.
TIMSHEL