I was tempted to welcome y’all to 2026, but is it really my place to do so? Because who am I? Georgie Jessel1? Besides, it’s not as though I arrived here before you; we all entered MMXXVI more or less together – beginning with those on the tip of the eastern side of the International Dateline, and ending, 24 hours hence, in the vicinity of its adjacent western neighbors.
I feel we don’t talk enough about the International Dateline – maybe because it’s mostly on the water. But in terms of ushering in a new year, the process, as illustrated below, begins, unmistakably, at the IDL.
Nobody, and to the best of my knowledge, has ever explained the Dateline’s eastward wiggle north of Tonga/Samoa – resembling nothing so much as the logo of the United States Postal Service facing the opposite direction.
Maybe also, if you’re like me, you confuse it with the Continental Divide, a hydrological separation, the northernmost point of which, like the International Dateline itself, is proximate to the Bering Strait which separates Russia from Alaska, but which then takes a turn thousands of miles east, concluding in the South at the Strait of Magellan.
If you’re confused at this point, you’re not alone. Because we enter ’26 in perplexing configuration.
About all I can state with certainty is that the year marks the Platinum (20th) Anniversary of this here publication. For the math-challenged, it did indeed begin at the end of 2005 and has been in continuous weekly production ever since.
Extending the arithmetical elaboration here, I have produced ~1140 of these masterworks, which tend to run roughly 3.5 pages. Using a handy approximation of 500 words/page, we arrive at the tidy word count of 2 Millions (or thereabouts).
‘Tis indeed cause for celebration. And perhaps a bit of historical context is also in order. It all began not long after I foolishly decided to create my first risk solutions business, with the notion that sending a weekend note to each of my clients might be a sound strategy for, at minimum, maintaining their fond remembrance. Because it’s nerve-wracking, as a service provider during slower intervals, to have no interaction with the latter other than the issuance of monthly invoices. My weekly notes, in other words, were there to remind them that they remained in my thoughts.
Some of the content logically concerned market conditions, which thus allowed me to genericize portions therein, while customizing the idiosyncratic elements within separate sections of each communication.
But the generic components took on a life of their own and soon required institutionalization. All of which was crowned, somewhere around ’07, by my decision to add a pithy title and associated thematic cadence to each publication.
Media content distribution channels then came clamoring to get in on the action, most notably my own LinkedIn page and the Contributors Section of ZeroHedge. And, before I knew it, the thing had reached the improbable zenith of between 300 and 500 readers in an average week.
To place this in context, it has somehow attained the reach of ~0.000005% of the number of bibles (~6B) currently in distribution.
And nobody can legitimately dispute its market impact. In the years since launch, The Gallant 500, two crashes notwithstanding, is a 6-bagger; Cornel Naz – busted to the ranks twice over this period due to poor performance — has risen 8-fold. BTC, now at $90K, was nothing more than a Satoshi pipe dream back then, but I hesitate to take full credit for its subsequent upward explosion.
In terms of the broader world, it was the year of Hurricane Katrina, where, for a couple of terrifying days, we feared the loss of Fats Domino.
Pope John Paul II died in April of that year. I’m not sure the folks in Rome ever replaced him.
YouTube launched in February. And Facebook, still a private company back then, made the financially lucrative but stylishly dubious decision to allow membership beyond college campuses, fostering the birth of billions of cat pictures and other horrors too plentiful to enumerate.
I’m not sure if this is related, but to the good, Charles and Camilla married at (where else?) Windsor Castle, and, to the better, the original members of Pink Floyd joined together for one last time on stage at Wembley.
The Bears won the NFC title that year and began the Super Bowl with GOAT return man Devin Hester taking the opening kickoff to The House. It was, in retrospect, a generational high-water moment. They lost that game to the Indy Mannings, and it’s been all downhill for my team ever since.
But back to the markets, where I wish I could, but cannot, claim to have created unmixed blessings. When I first took finger to keyboard, the National Debt, having recently surpassed $38T, stood at a quaint by comparison $8T.
And total indebtedness? All I can do is show you the chart. And weep:
There are eerie parallels between then and now. We are, again, a year into the second White House term of a nepo baby with a rich daddy, both of whom, heroically and at great financial cost, managed to avoid action in the Vietnam War (though W, to his credit, did spend time as a National Guard Fighter Interceptor – stationed, albeit, in a place where no hostile fighter planes were likely to be found).
Meantime, both president faced or are facing “you broke it/you bought it” conundrums in multiple foreign jurisdictions – then it was Iraq and Afghanistan; now it’s Gaza and Venezuela. It should be noted here that our track record for taking over countries whose leadership we dispatched militarily is less than stellar. The blowback — from Caracas to Berkeley and the Upper West Side — has already begun and is likely to increase in volume from here.
It’s a year of a Midterm election, with every indication being that the pendulum may very well swing back leftward. In 2006, the Dems picked up 31 House and 6 Senate seats, regaining, in the process, control of both august chambers. God help us if there’s a repeat in ’26.
Back in ’05, my city and state were, improbably, controlled by Republicans: Bloomberg running things at Gracie Mansion and the unforgettable (?) George Pataki holding down the fort in Albany. Here, the tables have turned. As of Midnight last Thursday, just as the last $50 pair of Depends sold near Times Square was performing its righteous, elegant duties, NYC swore in a new mayor, who, if he hasn’t ruined the town in less than a week, it’s not for lack of trying.
Twenty years ago, we found ourselves on the threshold of a Housing Bubble which ultimately came just short of bringing the capital market down on its ears. Matters in those realms are much calmer today, but it will be instructive to observe the triumphs and tragedies of Housing this year, and, while not particularly relevant, I can’t resist pointing out that Mortgage Rates are almost precisely where they were when I hit the send button on my first note, two decades ago:
For so early in the year, we’ve put FRED – Federal Reserve Economic Data — to substantial use, and I hope it’s not to our detriment. Or his. Or that of the good folks at the St. Louis Fed he reps. They may after all be tired. As am I. Two million words is a lot two write. No matter how long one has to concoct them.
I’m not sure I have another two million in me. But I reckon that’s in the Good Lord’s hands.
I can, however, wish you the best of fortune in ’26. And I do. Wish you the best of fortune in ’26 that is. And my fondest hope is embodied by my time-honored salutation, supplied below. It is the best risk management advice I can offer. So, if you don’t know what I’m talking about, I suggest you look it up. Before it’s too late.
TIMSHEL
1 George Albert “Georgie” Jessel (April 3, 1898 – May 23, 1981) was an American actor, singer, songwriter, and film producer. He was famous in his lifetime as a multitalented comedic entertainer, achieving a level of recognition that transcended his limited roles in movies. He was widely known as the “Toastmaster General of the United States,” for his frequent role as the master of ceremonies at political and entertainment gatherings.