Desperado, why don’t you come to your senses?
Come down from your fences,
OPEN THE GATE
Henley/Frey
I’ve heard Henley say that this was the first song he ever wrote. In any event, he never topped it. I will cop to being slow on the Eagles uptake; too focused on the banal, FM-Lite tripe such as “Take it Easy”, “Already Gone”, etc. stuff playing on endless loop. I respect “Hotel California” but only up to a point.
But then I gave a broader listen. Found out The Dude was wrong. These guys deserve their (albeit 2nd tier) spot in the pantheon. And I reckon that’s about it.
But as to gates, given the current contours of contemporary comportment, it is perhaps unsurprising that New York City has joined with those misanthropic Custodians of what was once, at any rate, known as Columbia University, in the legal battle to keep the main thoroughfare – Campus Walk (bisecting 116th between Amsterdam and Broadway) — closed to the public. Yes, the gates are still shut, the quad inaccessible to us Proles, and those needing to traverse across forced to either 114th or 120th street.
I have joyously trodden upon that ancient pavement on thousands of occasions, across several decades. But not lately. Having studied there and taught there, I sorta thought I had a permanent pass to the premises, but found out that not only was I wrong on that score, but still am.
It is yet another in the storied history of face-plants by the organization. One particularly comes to mind, which, though I’m not sure is true, ought to be. It is a matter of record that Dwight David Eisenhower served as president of the joint from 1948 until 1953 – a source of pride to us Lions, who are fond of telling anyone that will listen (often more than once) that his last three jobs were Commander in Chief of Allied Forces (WWII), President, Columbia University, and President of the United States.
But (here’s the good part) campus legend has it that the University erred in offering the post to Ike, having intended the invitation instead for his brother Milton, who went on to lead three higher learning institutions: His alma mater K-State, Penn State and Johns Hopkins (twice).
According to the yarn, the folks uptown bitched up the address, sent the proposal to Ike and, his having accepted it, had no choice but to gracefully welcome him to the corner office. He had just led a host of millions in the victorious dispatch of Hitler and Tojo, and, in doing so, saved the Free World. Not the man one would select to issue an “oopsies” apology. It wasn’t the best fit on either side, but I’d say overall, he achieved the campsite standard — leaving the space at any rate no worse than he found it upon arrival.
Matters have devolved in the ensuing 7+ decades, and, more recently, the spot has come to resemble nothing so much as the drummer stool for Spinal Tap or the keyboard bench for the Grateful Dead.
Or maybe I’m just still wasted. So what? It’s not every year, after all, that Easter falls on 4/20.
My head is ringing – yes, like it routinely did in 1975. Present tidings appear to remain both out of hand and beyond my ability to influence. So be it.
And I count myself among a growing legion of Wall Street professionals – yes, many of them aging stoners – who are becoming increasingly furious at the monkey muffins being slung out of Washington.
This past week was relatively quiet in the tariff wars (I did read, though, much to my disbelieving eyes, there’s even talk of placing an export tariff on the foreign purchase of Treasuries – a concept so mind bogglingly stupid that it merits no further comment).
Elsewhere in the grey matter-challenged recesses of the current Administration? Not so much. In an adjacent corner of International Trade, we are now poised to place punitive levies on Chinese shipping vessels docking at U.S. ports. As are the case tariffs, these costs – if the goods can still be shipped without gratuitous economic violence — will be passed on to consumers. The gates of our commercial harbors are thus not so much closed as they are barred – with tollkeepers demanding significant sums for ingress.
If they can’t or won’t pay, we won’t get the precious cargo. Even the meds. And there’s every chance that we will be subject to the double whammy of higher prices and less availability.
And even within the confines of these here shores, there appears to be a desperate, Desperado frenzy to outflank the prevailing hysteria. Early in the week, we were treated to the trial balloon of a tax increase on 7-figure incomes. What better way to unleash those jaunty, avaricious spirits of American enterprise? With due deference to this patriotic frenzy, though, should this come to pass, I am strongly considering shutting down my business. I suspect I’m not alone.
Then, of course, there was the inevitable ad hominem attack, issuing from the President’s commercial media enterprise, on the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Which, with trademark nuance and probity, featured extra-constitutional threats to remove him from his post.
I have documented proof that I warned this was coming, that Trump would blame any economic problems that arose (among others) on the Fed. Well, I was right but can take no joy in so being.
But fair warning: if Trump fires Powell, the markets will crash. Hard. Investors won’t put up with it. I believe that even the current, irresponsible dialogue around this – against the backdrop of so much madness – is suppressing valuations. As of now, this here show is being run by a burgeoning megalomaniac who is showing signs of not only an intolerance of dissension, but an unwillingness to accept anything but his fantasy-based, unachievable outcomes. A slowdown in economic activity due to trade wars that he initiated? Easy answer – cut rates. No cooperation from the Fed Chair? Fire his ass. Put in someone who will do his own bidding. An Inflation blip? Blame Ol’ Powell.
But I can’t conceive of anything scarier than placing our Central Bank in those withering orange hands. He’s already (more or less) taken out Congress – from whom we have heard very little for weeks. If he disappears an independent Fed, it may be lights out.
This, of course, won’t work. But even the continued attempt to remove Chair Pow will redound to the downside in valuation land. Posts attacking him are not helpful. And any formal steps taken beyond this will be met by vigorous resistance – by the judiciary, by the (presently defanged) Congress, by the public and by Powell himself. And by investors.
And, before I put this outrageous topic to rest, I must wonder if anybody among this krazy krew has considered that Monetary Policy is set not by the Fed Chair themself, but by the Federal Open Market Committee – a jury of 12 that is not as a body overly likely to do the Trump’s bidding. What’s he gonna do then? Get rid of enough to establish a working majority of minions? Replace all 12?
Meantime, any such action is likely to upend the precarious balance upon which the Capital Economy operates. And you won’t wanna be long stocks – or anything else at that point.
All the above is taking place at a point in the calendar where, in a better world, we’d all be focused upon financial and economic data. FWIW, the earnings season thus far has not been terrible but rather, decidedly underwhelming. Except for the banks, who blew it out – largely by their trading desks capitalizing on the volatility that is crushing many of their clients. And we should all celebrate this – if for no other reason than because we all contributed.
And in a holiday-shortened week, we can also perhaps rejoice in the reality that the broad-based indices did not retreat – much. And that Treasuries even rallied.
My best guess is that markets can go up here. Deep pocketed/long term investors may view current pricing as a proximate favorable entry point. There’s tons of cash on the sidelines, along with massive pockets of short interest there for the squeezin’.
Perhaps most importantly, there may be sufficient vestiges of self-awareness that remain to the Administration to kense that they not only need a win somewhere in here, but one that is recognized as such by investors. Accretive news on the tax and international trade front would be ideal, and I anticipate some happy talk in these realms over the next couple of weeks.
But I believe that any such relief will feel, and be, a rather hollow affair. Wintertime’s nearly over, but the Desperado’s feet are still cold.
Some fine things indeed have been laid upon his table, but he only wants the ones he can’t get.
What he’s aiming for I can’t for the life of me tell. Other than to prove some obtuse point about his own powers. If we better understood his objectives, perhaps we could help him more, or, more importantly, ourselves
Because just as they are Uptown, the gates are barred at New York Harbor. And in Seoul. And in Tokyo. And, of course, on Wall Street. And as such, many of us will be compelled to travel considerable distances out of our way to arrive at our destination.
Meanwhile, none of us is gettin no younger, including the Desperado his-self. There’s pain and hunger, but it’s not overtly driving us home.
And Freedom? Oh Freedom. Increasingly, it does seem like it’s just some people talkin’.
So, our quoted warning holds strong (followed by the sublime chord sequence of Gmaj-G7th-Cmaj- Cmin-G).
It may or may not be rainin’ but that rainbow is out there somewhere. Above us.
And in this holy season, let’s hope that the Desperado will let somebody love him.
Before. It’s too-oo-oo-oo. Late.
TIMSHEL