A couple of weeks ago, I was the target of an aggressive financial hack. Which almost worked. Somebody who identified themselves as a representative of my bank called to say that she was checking on what were clearly fraudulent transactions. I confirmed that they were and asked her to review other line items for the day. Which she recounted with precision. Including the Uber ride I had taken to my office a couple of hours earlier.
So, they were in my account prior to the call. After an hour or two of shenanigans, I reached out to my bank, which confirmed that a) this was a fraud, and b) my balances were intact. I put some extra protections on my banked assets. But I wasn’t done there. Next morning, I got a text from my brokerage firm asking me to authorize a cash transfer about which I knew nothing. I told them that this was to be denied, whereupon they connected me to someone who claimed to be from the Federal Trade Commission, who proceeded to inform me: 1) there was global fraudulent activity taking place in my name, which: b) would place me civilly and criminally liable unless I did everything, they told me to do.
I got a clue into my thick head when he informed me that he was about to disconnect me to my 6.5- decade old social security number, and issue me a new one. Because most of the people with whom I deal, as well as I personally, would like very much to put some distance between ourselves and our SSNs.
I was compelled into some inconvenience. Debit cards re-issued, multiple auto-pays re-established. I bought LifeLock premium, which set me back about one large. I was aggravated and embarrassed – particularly, as being someone who holds himself out to be a credentialed risk manager, I ought to have known better.
But, ending up not incrementally worse for the wear, it did occur to me that these are first world problems. I am not digging in the dirt for grubs to fill my belly. I have very little to fear from police and other enforcement agencies.
On the other hand, my brackets are in shambles. My new PRS guitar has faulty switches, making it clear to me that the company’s manufacturing standards have declined relative to those used on that flawless one I bought over 20 years ago (and still play). I also need some new harmonicas.
On April 15th, I owe a shit ton of taxes. Which I don’t feel like paying. My accountant is strongly encouraging me to overcome this aversion, and I am considering taking his advice.
First world problems.
I make my living in the realms of investment, which also is the victim of problems that apply exclusively to the privileged. Our equity indices are in the throes a big digger. Cornel Naz – deeply at risk of being busted down to the ranks – is down double digits. Bonds – Govies and Corporates – are flat for the year.
Both are riding a multi-decade rally.
BTC is down about 15% from its January highs but is still a 3.5 bagger over the last ten quarters. Chances are, it will rise (and fall) again.
Our Atlanta GDP modelers whacked us this week, dropping their Q1 forecast back down to -2.8%. But on the other hand, GDP has been in a sweet spot every quarter for the last two years:
Our National Debt is soaring to ~$37T – approximately 7x what it was as the Great Financial Crisis unfolded and ~1.3x our GDP. From an actuarial perspective, we cannot hope to pay this back and must monetize it. However, we continue to balloon our obligations with perceived impunity because, as custodians of the world’s Reserve Currency, we can simply print as much as we want and shove it down the throats of all known economic agents. For now.
Nobody on Wall Street is making much money in 2025, but ‘24 compensation – at Investment Banks, Hedge Funds and associated enterprises reached significant all-time highs.
So, I submit that our vexations, aggravations and anxieties have an authentic First-World feel to them. But this begs the question as to whether, in this here country, we can even retain our First World status.
I got to thinking about this when reviewing the following graphic:
Notice anything here? Like we didn’t even make the list? To be sure, nobody in the Lower 48 compelled to rely upon these systems should be surprised that we failed to crush it, we didn’t even merit a Participation Trophy!
Not for the BART, which my SF friends never tire to rave about. Nor for the Washington Metro, which my late, lamented uncle – Albert Sidney Grant – designed.
And it seems to me that if you’re a First World country, one of your cities ought to crack the Public Transport Top 20.
One plausible explanation for this is the settled reality that Americans rely much more on their wheels than do most other First World countries. Which brings us to another threat to our Primary Earth status. On Wednesday, anyone taking a notion to purchase a foreign car will be compelled to pay an additional 25% for the privilege. To the best of my understanding, one of the goals here is to use government economic coercion to impel the incremental purchase of American vehicles. Given this unearned price advantage, there is a perverse form of logic is at play here. Greater demand for jalopies manufactured right here under the spacious skies/amber grain waves is just ‘round the corner for us.
My advance economic training, with great nuance, suggests that higher demand catalyzes higher prices. But the geniuses who came up with this plan have us covered, as published reports inform us that the Administration has, presumably without much subtlety, indicated to domestic auto manufacturers that, as they won’t take kindly to associated price increases, they would recommend against taking this step.
It perhaps bears mention that the domestic auto system cannot instantaneously add production capacity to meet a demand surge. So, we’re looking at a potential shortage, which, in addition to the problems it presents for sourcing a new ride, will also impact the availability of used and rental cars.
Something of this nature transpired during the lockdowns. I had problems replacing my leased vehicle in 2020, as did, I’m sure, others in my First World position.
But how is this different from what was transpiring in, say, the food industry during the height of the covid rage? I distinctly remember government-issued warnings to all those fat cat grocers not to raise prices on their diminished inventory. But in a way, it’s worse, because back then, the shortages were neither self-imposed nor avoidable. At the time, tut-tutting conservative economists (including yours truly) were quick to point out that these actions could only lead to empty shelves. I don’t, however, hear much, in the same theme these days, about empty dealership lots.
And it all seems a bit Banana Republicish to me. And I suppose this is to be expected. Our current boss (same as the old boss) re-emerged from political purgatory after having been dispatched, indicted, convicted and shot at, to retake his old office. He’s made it clear that he hasn’t forgotten all that, and has, perhaps with some justification, come to town with a mission that envisions evening some scores.
But isn’t this the type of narrative that one might expect to emerge, not from the Land of the Free, etc., but rather from Central or South America?
So, as the quarter ends, I find myself concerned as to where we’re steering this here boat – a depressing concept to me as the pilots derive from the team for which I usually root. I don’t think the other side has better answers either. In fact: a) they may be worse; and b) given the ham-fisted way this is unfolding, the current Administration may blow it, giving us every opportunity to find out.
The month of April will be very instructive from this perspective. We’ve got those tariffs to joyfully anticipate this week, followed by Jobs Reports, Inflation estimates, and, of course, the ritualistic earnings calendar.
Investors are justifiably nervous, bracing themselves for additional economic and financial volatility. They are reluctant to load in – even at the discounts now available relative to valuations prevalent when the quarter began. I applaud this reticence, but feel that at least for now, most of the visible fears are priced into the market.
Because, at present we remain a First World country. With First World problems. The markets may go lower but will bounce back shortly.
And as for me, I will continue to check my financial statements for suspicious activity and am preparing to write that big fat check to our governmental overseers. Because in Worlds 1 through 10, it us unwise to upset the powers that be. You can’t make money that way, and, if not careful, might find that your assets have been absconded with.
TIMSHEL