Well, we made it through February, and no worse for the wear. Quite to the contrary, we enter the 2nd sextile of the year in what only can be described as fine fettle (God Oh Mighty, how I hate that phrase).
It’s now, as we all know, March. Which is a difficult month for me. Particularly the early parts of it. I won’t elaborate, because if you know, you know, and if you don’t, you won’t gain much by my having enlightened you. I probably shouldn’t reference it at all, particularly in such an obtuse fashion, but somehow, I feel, it merits (cryptic) acknowledgement.
As in the past, the interlude will soon be over. Then March REALLY begins – taking particularly March- like forms such as St. Patrick’s Day and March Madness Selection Sunday, which, this year, transpire contemporaneously.
So, as of now, we don’t know who’s in and who’s out (they haven’t even held the conference tourneys, FFS!) but I’m here to offer you my secret strategy for crushing the brackets this year. You must promise, though, to keep it TOP Secret.
I’m gonna base my selections entirely on recommendations from Chat GPT. Or maybe Gemini (haven’t decided yet), because the latter will ensure that my picks feature the most appropriate and adaptable sociological makeup.
I don’t know how I came up with this brainstorm, but it is indisputably inspired. This much is certain: no other participant in any pool will lay a glove on me.
I don’t expect to nail every single game, because, after all, even AI models are not thus far equipped to anticipate injuries, perfidious refs, or other accidents which may occur as the tournament unfolds. I fully expect it, nonetheless, to completely crush the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final 4 and Championship Game.
I’m gonna spread big cash bets across multiple sports books, so as to partially disguise my action. I, was, after all, born at night, but not, as they say, last night.
My entry into these ritualistic proceedings transpires after a long hiatus (I ain’t filled out a bracket in ages), the latter owing to several factors. I haven’t in recent years believed I have had much of an edge, betting the chalk (probably the best human-rendered strategy) is boring, and, most of all, in protest against the NCAA having co-opted the term March Madness from the Illinois High School Basketball Association.
Back when I was playing (OK, not very well), March Madness was a tourney reserved for the top eight teams in the Prairie State, transpiring over two short days, at Assembly Hall in Champaign, IL. The champs would thus be compelled to win two games on Saturday and another two on Sunday.
March Madness indeed. But then the suits at the NCAA and CBS purloined the phrase, and nothing has been the same since they did.
So, maybe it’s not a great idea to bet the ranch on AI-enabled bracket selections after all. And, somehow, I suspect that I’m not the only one who stumbled upon this stroke of genius. In fact, I’m guessing that any number of mooks will try this stunt, and envision untold millions, nay billions, being squandered on this scheme.
Because, while I’m a believer in the potential of AI to transform our lives, I suspect that associated models have not, as yet, conquered the Sisyphean challenge of accurately predicting the outcome of the NCAA hoops tourney. They may have calculated Pi out to a bajillion decimal places, cured cancer, solved Fermat’s Last Theorem in 6 moves, and performed other miracles. But the tourney?
No dice. Not yet anyway.
But please don’t share this shortcoming with investors, who continue to lay into the market with little abandon. This past week brought yet another round of record highs, even as Inflation re-emerges, war rages on multiple fronts, the Fed walks back promised monetary policy goodies, and midsized banks continue to experience the grinding of their gears.
None of the above has caused much, any, disturbance in the buying forces, which have catapulted our indices to yet another round of all-time highs. And they’re not alone.
One might consider, for instance, the rich, creamy contours of the Cocoa market:
And though it pains me to reference it, duty calls: how about that Bitcoin?
Unless either my eyes deceive me or my arithmetic skills have ossified entirely, BTC appears to have tripled over the last rolling year. Which is not a bad showing for a financial instrument the purport of which no one has yet properly and comprehensively set forth.
But – not gonna lie – I get a bit nervous about its coming collision course with AI. What happens if (when) Chat GPT cracks the mining algos?
While I am almost (but not quite) tempted to recommend hedging BTC with long NVDA, I. Just. Can’t.
The standard line is that the insatiable demand for these crypto cookies derive in part from a desire to hedge against the madness of monetary policy – in the U.S. and indeed across the developed world. This seems like a rational, if incomplete, line of argument. And nothing on the horizon – including Chair Pow’s turn on Capitol Hill at his semi-annual Humph Hawk address (Wed/Thurs) is likely to diminish the force of this logic. But still and all, I wonder if crypto buyers truly know what it is that they are buying.
Everyone, by contrast, understands what Cocoa is, being, among other things, the active ingredient in Cocoa Puffs, the signature tagline for which is “I’m cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs”. But surging demand for Cocoa seems to me to be entirely rational, though perhaps not to the extent suggested by CEO of rival cereal maker Kellogg’s, who was recently excoriated for suggesting his products might offer an economical choice for dinner in these hard-pressed times.
This bit of common sense finds no place in the Mad Month of March. So, I say, let’s embrace the mood of the season.
Because, somewhere out there, presumably, someone is running a March Madness Pool, denominated in BTC, with every participant using AI tools to drive their picks.
No, it doesn’t seem rational, but it is March, so, I say, let the Madness run free.
TIMSHEL